Tropical Cyclone Prediction Bands

Tropical Cyclone Prediction Bands

Using data relative to tracks of a little less than 1000 storms from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) we develop a fully data-driven statistical process for the creation of prediction bands around paths. In a parametric boostrap framework, first we simulate potential curves from a noisy extension to a linear model and then leverage statistical depth and geometric structures to create different version of confidence bands. This work is joint with Benjamin LeRoy and Robin Dunn.